%PDF-1.4 % 63 0 obj <> endobj xref 63 17 0000000016 00000 n 0000001069 00000 n 0000001132 00000 n 0000001387 00000 n 0000001849 00000 n 0000002407 00000 n 0000002442 00000 n 0000002555 00000 n 0000002794 00000 n 0000003039 00000 n 0000005551 00000 n 0000005995 00000 n 0000006242 00000 n 0000008890 00000 n 0000046620 00000 n 0000064010 00000 n 0000000636 00000 n trailer <]/Prev 602520>> startxref 0 %%EOF 79 0 obj <>stream hb``` , \;@Y8@\D f03d3/i`pi[ &YuO~:ѲvMJs+sŃ LܵqwMg(`#>%ŷ^qI]+tLU@O?YF487)H/)ª+Ul靁 Xk*Em5[.PcbXN=SKT팗L:ZvHw@-* \:g@U/(S/U"!: 8ū4AAV&Q.k w83.fe?j #?CC+ -X1pҌ@ ֬ endstream endobj 64 0 obj <> endobj 65 0 obj <>/ExtGState<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Rotate 0/Type/Page>> endobj 66 0 obj <> endobj 67 0 obj <> endobj 68 0 obj [/ICCBased 75 0 R] endobj 69 0 obj <> endobj 70 0 obj <> endobj 71 0 obj <> endobj 72 0 obj <>stream BT /CS0 cs 0 0 0 scn /GS0 gs /TT0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 72 708.96 Tm ( )Tj 19.5 -2.3 Td ( )Tj -19.5 -2.3 Td ( )Tj 1.098 -2.3 Td (Allan Meltzer\222s Model of the Transmission Mechanism and Its Implicati\ ons for Today)Tj ( )Tj 18.402 -2.3 Td ( )Tj /TT1 1 Tf -3.429 -2.3 Td (Peter N. Ireland)Tj (*)Tj ( )Tj -7.375 -2.3 Td (Boston College and Shadow Open Market Committee)Tj ( )Tj 7.569 -2.3 Td (Nov)Tj (e)Tj (mber 2017)Tj ( )Tj -16.265 -2.3 Td ( )Tj /TT2 1 Tf 0 -2.3 Td (Abstract:)Tj /TT1 1 Tf ( )Tj (Allan Meltzer developed his model of the monetary transmission mechanis)Tj 33.992 0 Td (m in )Tj -33.992 -1.14 Td (research conducted )Tj (with Karl Brunner. The Brunner)Tj (-)Tj (Meltzer model implies that the Federal )Tj 0 -1.16 Td (Reserve would benefit from drawing brighter lines between monetary and f\ iscal policy actions, )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (eschewing credit market intervention and focusing, instead, on usin)Tj 26.993 0 Td (g its control over the )Tj -26.993 -1.16 Td (monetary base to stabilize the aggregate price level. The model downpla\ ys the importance of the )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (zero lower )Tj (interest rate)Tj ( )Tj (bound and suggests a greater role for monetary aggregates in the Fed\222\ s )Tj 0 -1.16 Td (policymaking strategy. Finally, it high)Tj (lights the benefits that accrue when policy is conducted )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (according to )Tj (a rule)Tj ( )Tj (rather than discretion.)Tj ( )Tj 0 -1.16 Td ( )Tj /TT2 1 Tf 0 -1.14 Td (JEL Codes:)Tj /TT1 1 Tf ( )Tj (B31, E52.)Tj ( )Tj 0 -1.16 Td ( )Tj /TT2 1 Tf 0 -1.14 Td (Keywords:)Tj /TT1 1 Tf ( )Tj (Allan Meltzer, Karl Brunner, Monetarism, Monetary Transmission Mechanism\ .)Tj 36.492 0 Td ( )Tj -36.492 -1.16 Td ( )Tj 0 -1.14 Td ( )Tj 0 -1.16 Td ( )Tj 0 -1.14 Td ( )Tj 0 -1.16 Td ( )Tj 0 -1.14 Td ( )Tj 0 -1.16 Td ( )Tj 0 -1.14 Td ( )Tj 0 -1.16 Td ( )Tj 0 -1.14 Td ( )Tj 0 -1.16 Td ( )Tj 0 -1.14 Td ( )Tj 0 -1.16 Td (*Please address corre)Tj (spondence to: )Tj (Peter N. Ireland)Tj (, Boston College, )Tj (Department of Economics, )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (140 Commonwealth Avenue, Chestnut Hill MA 02467. )Tj ( )Tj (Email: )Tj 0.02 0.388 0.757 scn (peter.ireland@bc.edu)Tj 0 0 0 scn (. I would )Tj ET 0.02 0.388 0.757 scn 379.68 113.52 102.96 0.481 re f BT 0 0 0 scn 12 0 0 12 72 101.76 Tm (like to thank Michael Belongia for extremely helpful comments on )Tj 26.993 0 Td (an initial draft of this paper; )Tj -26.993 -1.14 Td (all remaining errors and misstatements are my own.)Tj 20.716 0 Td ( )Tj ET endstream endobj 73 0 obj <> endobj 74 0 obj <> endobj 75 0 obj <>stream HyTSwoɞc [5laQIBHADED2mtFOE.c}08׎8GNg9w߽'0 ֠Jb  2y.-;!KZ ^i"L0- @8(r;q7Ly&Qq4j|9 V)gB0iW8#8wթ8_٥ʨQQj@&A)/g>'Kt;\ ӥ$պFZUn(4T%)뫔0C&Zi8bxEB;Pӓ̹A om?W= x-[0}y)7ta>jT7@tܛ`q2ʀ&6ZLĄ?_yxg)˔zçLU*uSkSeO4?׸c. 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Key contributions include Brunner )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (and Meltzer \(1968, 1972, 1976\) and the additional articles collected i\ n Brunner and Meltzer )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (\(1989\). Brunner, Cukierman, and Meltzer \(1980, 1983\) stand out, too\ , for bringing )Tj 33.577 0 Td (Allan\222s ideas )Tj -33.577 -2.3 Td (into )Tj (direct )Tj (contact with th)Tj (e rational expectations revolution. Since Brunner and Meltzer \(1990, )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (1993\) and Meltzer \()Tj (1995\) already survey this work)Tj (, it would be redundant to simply summarize )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (one or more of the papers in great depth here. Instead, this discussion\ is aimed at highligh)Tj 36.13 0 Td (ting a )Tj -36.13 -2.3 Td (few major themes that emerge from Allan\222s writing and research and dr\ awing out some )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (implications for monetary policymaking today.)Tj 18.857 0 Td ( )Tj -18.857 -2.3 Td ( )Tj 3 0 Td (T)Tj (he time seems right for a review of this kind. As the lingering effects\ of the Great )Tj -3 -2.3 Td (Recession of 2007)Tj (-)Tj (09 continue to fade away, Federal Reserve officials now face the challen\ ge of )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (designing and implementing new monetary policy strategies to replace and\ i)Tj 30.491 0 Td (mprove upon those )Tj -30.491 -2.3 Td (adopted under duress during the financial crisis and the unexpectedly lo\ ng period of zero short)Tj 37.822 0 Td (-)Tj -37.822 -2.3 Td (term interest rates that followed. This was )Tj 17.301 0 Td (a big )Tj (part of )Tj (Allan\222)Tj (s research program)Tj (, too: looking )Tj -17.301 -2.3 Td (back at)Tj ( )Tj (history and identifying, with the he)Tj (lp of monetary theory, lessons from the past that could )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (be put to good use in the future.)Tj ( )Tj 0 -2.3 Td ( )Tj /TT1 1 Tf 0 -2.3 Td (The Brunner)Tj (-)Tj (Meltzer Model)Tj ( )Tj /TT0 1 Tf 0 -2.3 Td (Underlying Allan\222s model of the transmission mechanism is a broader w\ orld view that all )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (monetarists share: that the capitalist system, what)Tj 19.801 0 Td (ever its flaws, remains the most effective one )Tj -19.801 -2.3 Td (for allocating scare resources. According to this view, market prices a\ djust, in the long run, to )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (keep the economy moving efficiently along a balanced growth path. Econo\ mic theory )Tj ET endstream endobj 3 0 obj <>/ExtGState<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Rotate 0/Type/Page>> endobj 4 0 obj <>stream BT /CS0 cs 0 0 0 scn /GS0 gs /C2_0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 72 57.12 Tm <0001>Tj ET q 302.88 54.72 6.24 13.92 re W n BT /TT0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 302.88 57.6 Tm (2)Tj ( )Tj ET Q BT /TT0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 72 708.96 Tm (emphasizes, however, that m)Tj (arket prices are )Tj /TT1 1 Tf (relative)Tj /TT0 1 Tf ( )Tj (prices. The central bank\222s principal role )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (and obligation within this system is to pin down the )Tj /TT1 1 Tf (absolute level)Tj /TT0 1 Tf ( )Tj (of )Tj /TT1 1 Tf (nominal)Tj /TT0 1 Tf ( )Tj (prices. The central )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (bank accomplishes this by exploiting its monopoly over the supply of bas\ e money: curren)Tj 35.91 0 Td (cy in )Tj -35.91 -2.3 Td (circulation plus bank reserves.)Tj ( )Tj 3 -2.3 Td (Anyone who recognizes the practical relevance of these basic ideas )Tj 27.154 0 Td (\226)Tj ( )Tj (known collectively )Tj -30.154 -2.3 Td (as the )Tj /TT1 1 Tf (classical dichotomy)Tj /TT0 1 Tf ( )Tj (\226)Tj ( )Tj (is well on his or her way towards understanding the fundamental )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (message of)Tj ( )Tj (Allan\222s model. As Hetzel )Tj (\(2018)Tj (\) usefully points out, the finer details of this )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (monetarist view find their clearest exposition in the New Keynesian mode\ l\222s \223divine )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (coincidence,\224 according to which, by achieving and maintaining credib\ ility for a policy aimed at )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (stabilizing the aggre)Tj (gate price level first, the central bank also creates the most favora)Tj 34.319 0 Td (ble)Tj ( )Tj -34.319 -2.3 Td (environment within which the )Tj (market economy can respond )Tj (efficiently to shocks. The Brunner)Tj (-)Tj 0 -2.3 Td (Meltzer model has this implication, too, but differs from the New Keynes\ ian framework in at)Tj 37.268 0 Td ( )Tj -37.268 -2.3 Td (least two important ways.)Tj ( )Tj 3 -2.3 Td (First, instead of a more mechanical scheme for staggered nominal price o\ r wage setting, )Tj -3 -2.3 Td (the slow of adjustment in nominal prices that allows monetary policy to \ have real effects in )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (Allan\222s model stems from agents\222 imperfect infor)Tj 19.828 0 Td (mation about the sources and persistence of )Tj -19.828 -2.3 Td (shocks and the precise way those shocks propagate through decentralized \ goods, labor, and asset )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (markets. Allan summarized this view as follows:)Tj ( )Tj 3 -2.3 Td (For a monetarist or classical economist, long)Tj 17.913 0 Td (-)Tj (run neutrality of nom)Tj (inal impulses is )Tj -17.913 -1.14 Td (an implication of rational behavio)Tj 13.551 0 Td (r. However, before impulses are)Tj ( )Tj (fully absorbed, )Tj -13.551 -1.16 Td (relative prices and real output respond to monetary impulses. The reaso\ n is that )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (households and businesses fail to anticipate or perceive correctly all o\ f )Tj 28.518 0 Td (the future )Tj -28.518 -1.16 Td (implications of past and current actions. From a monetarist perspective\ , one )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (principal reason for the misperceptions that give r)Tj 19.91 0 Td (ise to relative price changes is)Tj 12.023 0 Td ( )Tj -31.933 -1.16 Td (that time is required to distinguish permanent and transitory impulses a\ nd real and)Tj 32.881 0 Td ( )Tj -32.881 -1.14 Td (nominal impulses. These delays in correctly perceiving the duration or \ type of )Tj 0 -1.16 Td (change are part of the costs of acquiring information. Contracting in n\ ominal )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (terms is one response to these uncertainties. \(Meltzer 1995, pp.49)Tj 26.465 0 Td (-)Tj (50\).)Tj ( )Tj ET endstream endobj 5 0 obj <>/ExtGState<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Rotate 0/Type/Page>> endobj 6 0 obj <>stream BT /CS0 cs 0 0 0 scn /GS0 gs /C2_0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 72 57.12 Tm <0001>Tj ET q 302.88 54.72 6.24 13.92 re W n BT /TT0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 302.88 57.6 Tm (3)Tj ( )Tj ET Q BT /TT0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 72 708.96 Tm (Thus, Allan\222s model of )Tj (the nominal rigidities that underlie, for example, the statistical Phill\ ips )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (curve relation that reflects short)Tj (-)Tj (run monetary nonneutrality combines elements of Lucas\222 \(1972\) )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (misperceptions model with those of Mankiw and Reis\222 \(2002\) sticky i\ nformation setup)Tj 34.8 0 Td (. From )Tj -34.8 -2.3 Td (the passage above it is clear, however, that for Allan, real)Tj 22.963 0 Td (-)Tj (world informational frictions are more )Tj -22.963 -2.3 Td (widespread and complex than they appear in either of those)Tj 23.797 0 Td (, or other,)Tj ( )Tj (more stylized models.)Tj ( )Tj -23.797 -2.3 Td ( )Tj 3 0 Td (Second, Allan emphasized repeatedly, throughout all his)Tj 22.605 0 Td ( )Tj (work, that the monetary )Tj -25.605 -2.3 Td (transmission mechanism involves the gradual but inevitable adjustment of\ many relative prices )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (across many decentralized markets. He stressed this point, partly, by c\ riticizing more popular )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (Keynesian and New Keynesian models, which)Tj ( )Tj (focus exclusively on the role of short)Tj (-)Tj (term )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (interest rates in transmitting the effects of monetary policy through th\ e economy. Along those )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (lines, he wrote:)Tj ( )Tj 3 -2.3 Td (To a monetarist economist, this view of the transmission mechanism is ov\ erly )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (restrictive and mecha)Tj (nical. A monetary impulse that alters the nominal and real )Tj 0 -1.16 Td (stocks of money does more than change a single short)Tj (-)Tj (term interest rate or )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (borrowing cost. Monetary impulses change actual and anticipated prices \ on a )Tj 0 -1.16 Td (variety of domestic and foreign assets. Int)Tj (ermediation, the term structure of )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (interest rates, borrowing and lendi)Tj (ng, and exchange rates respond. \205 )Tj (The use of a )Tj 0 -1.16 Td (single short)Tj (-)Tj (term interest rate)Tj ( )Tj (\205)Tj ( )Tj (is a poor metaphor for the classical response of )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (relative prices following a monetary impulse and the further adjustments\ that )Tj 0 -1.16 Td (restore neutrality.)Tj ( )Tj (\(Meltzer 1995, pp.51)Tj (-)Tj (52\).)Tj ( )Tj 0 -1.14 Td ( )Tj -3 -1.16 Td (Th)Tj (e )Tj (central )Tj (role)Tj ( )Tj (t)Tj (hat Allan and Karl Brunner assign)Tj ( )Tj (to patterns of relative pric)Tj (e adjustment )Tj (and )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (the )Tj (underlying problems of imperfect information suggests that the intellect\ ual exchanges the )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (two had with Armen Alchian )Tj (\226)Tj ( )Tj (mentioned in Meltzer \(2015, p.12\) )Tj (\226)Tj ( )Tj (must have )Tj (influenced )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (strongly their work on the transmission )Tj (mechanism as well a)Tj (s )Tj (the)Tj (ir)Tj ( )Tj (theory of)Tj ( )Tj (monetary )Tj (exchange)Tj ( )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (exposited in Brunner and Meltzer \(1971\).)Tj ( )Tj 3 -2.3 Td (In Allan\222s view, a complete and more correct analysis of the monetary\ transmission )Tj -3 -2.3 Td (mechanism requires detailed consideration of both the money and capital \ markets. Thus, in )Tj ET endstream endobj 7 0 obj <>/ExtGState<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Rotate 0/Type/Page>> endobj 8 0 obj <>stream BT /CS0 cs 0 0 0 scn /GS0 gs /C2_0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 72 57.12 Tm <0001>Tj ET q 302.88 54.72 6.24 13.92 re W n BT /TT0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 302.88 57.6 Tm (4)Tj ( )Tj ET Q BT /TT0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 72 708.96 Tm (Brunn)Tj (er and Meltzer \(1990\) and Meltzer \(1995\), the effects of monetary po\ licy actions such as )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (open market operations are analyzed by manipulating two curves in a diag\ ram)Tj 31.294 0 Td (, reproduced in the )Tj -31.294 -2.3 Td (top panel of)Tj ( )Tj (figure 1,)Tj ( )Tj (that measures the nominal interest rate)Tj ( )Tj (along one)Tj ( )Tj (axis and the real price of )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (capital)Tj ( )Tj (along)Tj ( )Tj (the other. The \223MM curve\224 describes combinations of these two rel\ ative prices )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (consistent with equilibrium in the money market, while the \223CM curve\224\ does the same for the )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (capital market.)Tj ( )Tj (The MM curve slopes up, be)Tj (cause an increase in the interest rate decreases the )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (demand for money; with money supply unchanged, equilibrium can be mainta\ ined only if the )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (price of capital rises, thereby lowering the expected return on capital \ and bringing the quantity of )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (money demande)Tj (d back in line with supply. Conversely, the CM curve slopes down, becau\ se an )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (increase in the interest rate increases the demand for bonds, and with t\ he supply of bonds )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (unchanged, equilibrium can be maintained only if the price of capital fa\ lls, lowering t)Tj 34.183 0 Td (he expected )Tj -34.183 -2.3 Td (return on capital and bringing the quantity of bonds demanded back in li\ ne with supply.)Tj 35.076 0 Td ( )Tj -32.076 -2.3 Td (The bottom panel of figure 1)Tj ( )Tj (then shows the initial effects of an open market purchase in )Tj -3 -2.3 Td (the Brunner)Tj (-)Tj (Meltzer model. The MM curve shifts to the right: some combination of a \ lower )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (interest rate and a higher price of capital is needed to induce market p\ articipants to hold the )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (addition)Tj (al base money that is being supplied. At the same time, the CM curve sh\ ifts to the left. )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (Because the central bank is buying up previously)Tj 19.634 0 Td (-)Tj (issued government bonds, some combination )Tj -19.634 -2.3 Td (of a lower interest rate and a lower price of capital is needed )Tj 24.405 0 Td (to make ma)Tj (rket participants )Tj -24.405 -2.3 Td (willingly sell those bonds. The open market operation unambiguously l)Tj 28.746 0 Td (owers the nominal )Tj -28.746 -2.3 Td (interest rate. I)Tj (ts effect on the price of capital is ambiguous in sign, but assumed by B\ runner and )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (Meltzer to be positive since \223empirical studies su)Tj 19.689 0 Td (ggest that open market purchases raise the asset )Tj -19.689 -2.3 Td (price level\224 \(Meltzer 1995, p.55\))Tj (.)Tj ( )Tj ET endstream endobj 9 0 obj <>/ExtGState<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Rotate 0/Type/Page>> endobj 10 0 obj <>stream BT /CS0 cs 0 0 0 scn /GS0 gs /C2_0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 72 57.12 Tm <0001>Tj ET q 302.88 54.72 6.24 13.92 re W n BT /TT0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 302.88 57.6 Tm (5)Tj ( )Tj ET Q BT /TT0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 108 708.96 Tm (Thus, )Tj (Allan\222s analytic )Tj (framework captures a richer set of)Tj 22.796 0 Td ( )Tj (behavioral responses according )Tj -25.796 -2.3 Td (to which market participants substitute, not only between money and bond\ s, but acro)Tj 33.937 0 Td (ss a much )Tj -33.937 -2.3 Td (wider range of capital assets, following an open market operation. Thro\ ugh these substitution )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (effects, the monetary policy action triggers changes in a spectrum of as\ set prices, not just the )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (short)Tj (-)Tj (term interest rate, all of which spill over to t)Tj 19.939 0 Td (he goods and labor markets, generating )Tj -19.939 -2.3 Td (changes in real aggregate spending and employment in the short run and i\ n nominal prices and )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (wages in the long run.)Tj ( )Tj 0 -2.3 Td ( )Tj 3 0 Td (The Brunner)Tj (-)Tj (Meltzer model )Tj (therefore)Tj ( )Tj (has implications that differ along many dimensions)Tj 35.878 0 Td ( )Tj -38.878 -2.3 Td (from those of more basic Keynesian and New Keynesian specifications.)Tj 28.769 0 Td ( )Tj (In both Keynesian and )Tj -28.769 -2.3 Td (New Keynesian models, for example, Poole \(1970\) and Ireland \(2000\) s\ how that the central bank )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (can insulate output and the price level from shocks to money demand b)Tj 28.492 0 Td (y supplyi)Tj (ng reserves )Tj -28.492 -2.3 Td (elastically )Tj (to peg the short)Tj (-)Tj (term nominal interest )Tj (rate. Brunner and Meltzer \(1990)Tj (, pp.390)Tj (-)Tj (391\) )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (emphasize that this result does not carry over to their)Tj 21.188 0 Td ( )Tj (richer)Tj ( )Tj (model. First, if the central bank )Tj -21.188 -2.3 Td (increases the monetary base to hold the )Tj 15.967 0 Td (interest rate steady in the face of a shock that increases )Tj -15.967 -2.3 Td (money demand, capital asset prices nevertheless fall, with a negati)Tj 26.574 0 Td (ve impact on aggregate )Tj -26.574 -2.3 Td (demand. )Tj (Figure 2 illustrates this result)Tj (. In )Tj (the top panel)Tj (, the initial shock to money demand )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (works to sh)Tj (ift the MM curve to the left, putting upward pressure on the interest ra\ te and )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (downward pressure on asset prices. To stabilize the interest rate, the \ central bank must conduct )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (an)Tj ( )Tj (open market purchase that, in the bottom panel of figure 2)Tj 24.437 0 Td (, shifts the MM cu)Tj (rve back to the )Tj -24.437 -2.3 Td (right but also move the CM curve to the left. The interest rate holds s\ teady, but capital )Tj 34.991 0 Td (asset )Tj -34.991 -2.3 Td (prices )Tj (still )Tj 4.388 0 Td (fall.)Tj ( )Tj -1.388 -2.3 Td (What\222s more, shocks to the demand for )Tj /TT1 1 Tf (credit)Tj /TT0 1 Tf ( )Tj (in the Brunner)Tj (-)Tj (Meltzer model also require )Tj -3 -2.3 Td (an increase in base money to prevent the nominal interest rate from risi\ ng, but an open market )Tj ET endstream endobj 11 0 obj <>/ExtGState<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Rotate 0/Type/Page>> endobj 12 0 obj <>stream BT /CS0 cs 0 0 0 scn /GS0 gs /C2_0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 72 57.12 Tm <0001>Tj ET q 302.88 54.72 6.24 13.92 re W n BT /TT0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 302.88 57.6 Tm (6)Tj ( )Tj ET Q BT /TT0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 72 708.96 Tm (purchase)Tj ( )Tj (following a shock of that kind )Tj (work)Tj (s also)Tj ( )Tj (to increase equity price)Tj (s)Tj (, with an )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (expansionary effect of aggregate)Tj ( )Tj (demand.)Tj ( )Tj (In the top panel of figure 3)Tj (, this shock )Tj (\226)Tj ( )Tj (equivalent to)Tj ( )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (an increase in the supply of bonds )Tj (--)Tj ( )Tj (works initially to shift the CM curve to the right, putting )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (upward pressure on the interest rate and asset prices. Once again, an o\ pen market purchase)Tj 36.513 0 Td ( )Tj (is )Tj -36.513 -2.3 Td (needed to stabilize the interest rat)Tj (e, but as shown in the bottom panel of figure 3)Tj (,)Tj ( )Tj (this magnifies )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (the previous increase in the )Tj (capital asset price)Tj (. )Tj (Depending on the magnitudes of various )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (elasticities of demand and on the relative size and frequency of the two\ )Tj 28.684 0 Td (types of )Tj (fin)Tj (ancial)Tj (-)Tj (sector )Tj -28.684 -2.3 Td (shocks, )Tj (therefore, )Tj (a policy strategy based on interest rate targeting via the elastic suppl\ y of base )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (money may either stabilize or destabilize the economy.)Tj 22.048 0 Td ( )Tj -22.048 -2.3 Td ( )Tj 3 0 Td (Most importantly, by emphasizing that open market operations affect a wi\ de range of )Tj -3 -2.3 Td (r)Tj (elative prices)Tj ( )Tj (in)Tj ( )Tj (the money, bond, and capital markets, the Brunner)Tj 27.13 0 Td (-)Tj (Meltzer model downplays )Tj -27.13 -2.3 Td (the importance of the Keynes)Tj 11.773 0 Td (ian liquidity trap and its modern reincarnation)Tj 18.384 0 Td (, the zero lower )Tj -30.157 -2.3 Td (bound on nominal interest rates. In the Brunner)Tj (-)Tj (Meltzer model, expansio)Tj (nary open market )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (operations still work to increase other capital asset prices, even after\ the short)Tj 31.017 0 Td (-)Tj (term interest rate )Tj -31.017 -2.3 Td (reaches its zero lower bound. And, through those additional channels, m\ onetary policy continues )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (to affect aggregate output and employmen)Tj 16.91 0 Td (t in the short run and the aggregate price level in the )Tj -16.91 -2.3 Td (long run. Again, Allan explains:)Tj ( )Tj 3 -2.3 Td (\205 in Keynesian theory, a liquidity trap eliminates the effect of mone\ tary impulses )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (on the real economy. Once the interest rate reaches a minimum value, mo\ netary )Tj 0 -1.16 Td (poli)Tj (cy becomes impotent; changes in the stock of money are absorbed by money\ )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (holders at an unchanged interest rate. But this implication is false in\ monetarist )Tj 0 -1.16 Td (analysis. Market interest rates are only one of the relative prices aff\ ected by )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (monetary impulses.)Tj ( )Tj (An increase in the monetary base would not lower the )Tj 0 -1.16 Td (interest rate, but asset prices would increase. Relative price changes \ and their )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (effects on spending would not be eliminated by a liquidity trap for inte\ rest rates. )Tj 0 -1.16 Td (\(Meltzer 1995, p.56\))Tj ( )Tj 0 -1.14 Td ( )Tj ET endstream endobj 13 0 obj <>/ExtGState<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Rotate 0/Type/Page>> endobj 14 0 obj <>stream BT /CS0 cs 0 0 0 scn /GS0 gs /C2_0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 72 57.12 Tm <0001>Tj ET q 302.88 54.72 6.24 13.92 re W n BT /TT0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 302.88 57.6 Tm (7)Tj ( )Tj ET Q BT /TT0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 72 708.96 Tm ( )Tj 3 0 Td (Meltzer \(20)Tj (01\) elaborates, by distinguishing the real and nominal effects of these\ policy)Tj 35.239 0 Td (-)Tj -38.239 -2.3 Td (induc)Tj (ed changes in relative prices at)Tj ( )Tj (the )Tj (zero lower bound from t)Tj (he more traditional, Haberl)Tj (er)Tj (-)Tj 0 -2.3 Td (Pigou)Tj (-)Tj (Patinkin real balance e)Tj (ffect studied)Tj (, for example,)Tj ( )Tj (in a modern cash)Tj (-)Tj (in)Tj (-)Tj (advan)Tj (ce framework )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (by Ireland \(2005\). Meltzer \(2001\) also provides evidence that these\ effects were operative )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (during several key episodes of United States monetary history )Tj 25.078 0 Td (\226)Tj ( )Tj (especially the recessions of )Tj -25.078 -2.3 Td (1937)Tj (-)Tj (38 and 1948)Tj (-)Tj (49 )Tj (\226)Tj ( )Tj (when changes in the mone)Tj (y )Tj (supply )Tj (had)Tj ( )Tj (their predicted effects despite the )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (persistence of very low no)Tj (minal interest rates and spells)Tj 22.382 0 Td ( )Tj (of outright deflation. Finally, Meltzer )Tj -22.382 -2.3 Td (\(2001\) provides another brief but convincing argument that monetary po\ licy actions )Tj /TT1 1 Tf 33.852 0 Td (must )Tj /TT0 1 Tf (have )Tj -33.852 -2.3 Td (effects through their )Tj (impact on a wider range of variables beyond money market interest rates,\ )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (crediting Karl Brunner with the simple observation that)Tj 22.189 0 Td ( )Tj -19.189 -2.3 Td (Monetary policy actions are effective and powerful in the less developed\ )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (countries of Africa, Latin America, or Asia where ther)Tj 21.769 0 Td (e is no money market. )Tj -21.769 -1.16 Td (Relative prices respond to monetary impulses in countries without centra\ l banks, )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (and without money markets. There is more to the transmission mechanism \ than )Tj 0 -1.16 Td (the models recognize.)Tj ( )Tj (\(Meltzer 2001, p.115\).)Tj ( )Tj 0 -1.14 Td ( )Tj /TT2 1 Tf -3 -1.16 Td ( )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (Implications for Today)Tj ( )Tj /TT0 1 Tf 0 -2.3 Td (Thus)Tj (, the)Tj ( )Tj (Brunner)Tj (-)Tj (Meltzer model provides at least a partial rationale for some of the acti\ ons )Tj 37.099 0 Td (that )Tj -37.099 -2.3 Td (the Federal Reserve took during and immediately after the financial cris\ is of 2007)Tj 32.767 0 Td (-)Tj (08. )Tj -32.767 -2.3 Td (According to the model, it makes sense that, after the federal funds rat\ e)Tj 28.545 0 Td ( )Tj (reached its zero lower )Tj -28.545 -2.3 Td (bound in December 2008, Federal Reserve officials shifted their attentio\ n to longer)Tj 33.268 0 Td (-)Tj (term bond )Tj -33.268 -2.3 Td (rates, )Tj (mortgage rates)Tj (, and equity prices )Tj (to gauge the effects their policy actions were having on )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (the United States economy.)Tj ( )Tj 0 -2.3 Td ( )Tj 3 0 Td (But the B)Tj (run)Tj (ner)Tj (-)Tj (Meltzer model can also be used to critique important aspects of the )Tj -3 -2.3 Td (Fed\222s \223unconventional\224 policy actions during and since the cris\ is. Crucially, while the model )Tj ET endstream endobj 15 0 obj <>/ExtGState<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Rotate 0/Type/Page>> endobj 16 0 obj <>stream BT /CS0 cs 0 0 0 scn /GS0 gs /C2_0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 72 57.12 Tm <0001>Tj ET q 302.88 54.72 6.24 13.92 re W n BT /TT0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 302.88 57.6 Tm (8)Tj ( )Tj ET Q BT /TT0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 72 708.96 Tm (implies that the central bank )Tj /TT1 1 Tf 11.58 0 Td (can)Tj /TT0 1 Tf ( )Tj (affect other asset prices while short)Tj (-)Tj (term interest rat)Tj (es are at )Tj -11.58 -2.3 Td (their zero lower bound, it does not suggest that the central bank should\ deliberately tailor its )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (open market purchases to as to influence the prices of specific capital \ asset prices, which would )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (be determined more efficiently in the free market. )Tj 20.185 0 Td ( )Tj (The Federal Reserve, as our nation\222s central )Tj -20.185 -2.3 Td (bank, is responsible for the conduct of monetary policy: control of the \ aggregate nominal price )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (level through the open market exchange)Tj (s)Tj ( )Tj (of base money for United States Treasury debt. Fiscal )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (policy, including d)Tj (ecisions about the maturity structure of government securities held by t\ he )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (public and)Tj ( )Tj (the)Tj ( )Tj (actions, if any, that require direct intervention in private credit and \ capital )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (markets, should remain the responsibility of Congress, in consultation w\ ith the Presid)Tj 34.246 0 Td (ent and the )Tj -34.246 -2.3 Td (Secretary of the Treasury.)Tj ( )Tj 0 -2.3 Td ( )Tj 3 0 Td (The Brunner)Tj (-)Tj (Meltzer model is very clear on this. It implies that the Fed could and \ should )Tj -3 -2.3 Td (have continued to use conventional open market operations )Tj 23.993 0 Td (\226)Tj ( )Tj (purchases of Treasury securities )Tj -23.993 -2.3 Td (using newly)Tj (-)Tj (created base money )Tj (\226)Tj ( )Tj (to provide additional monetary stimulus during the financial )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (crisis and the severe recession that following, with the specific aim of\ preventing the aggregate )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (price level from falling persistently below the levels )Tj 21.104 0 Td (prescribed by the central bank\222s previous)Tj 16.466 0 Td (ly)Tj (-)Tj -37.571 -2.3 Td (announced two percent inflation target. Thus, to the extent that the Fe\ d\222s three rounds of )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (\223quantitative easing\224 were directly at increasing the monetary bas\ e to prevent inflation from )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (falling too far below target, those actions are fully justified by )Tj 25.048 0 Td (the model.)Tj ( )Tj (Indeed, Allan himself )Tj -25.048 -2.3 Td (viewed the effects of QE as providing evidence consistent with the Brunn\ er)Tj 30.241 0 Td (-)Tj (Meltzer model\222s )Tj -30.241 -2.3 Td (implications:)Tj ( )Tj 3 -2.3 Td (As the QE programs at the Federal Reserve and other central banks showed\ , zero )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (short)Tj (-)Tj (term interest rate did not preve)Tj (nt monetary expansion. The Federal Reserve )Tj 0 -1.16 Td (purchased medium and long)Tj (-)Tj (term debt. Asset prices rose and the exchange rate )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (depreciated, as our conclusion about liquidity traps implied. The so)Tj 27.16 0 Td (-)Tj (called zero )Tj -27.16 -1.16 Td (lower bound turned out to bind very little other tha)Tj (n very short)Tj (-)Tj (term rates. )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (\(Meltzer 2015, p.11\))Tj ( )Tj ET endstream endobj 17 0 obj <>/ExtGState<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Rotate 0/Type/Page>> endobj 18 0 obj <>stream BT /CS0 cs 0 0 0 scn /GS0 gs /C2_0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 72 57.12 Tm <0001>Tj ET q 302.88 54.72 6.24 13.92 re W n BT /TT0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 302.88 57.6 Tm (9)Tj ( )Tj ET Q BT /TT0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 72 708.96 Tm ( )Tj 3 0 Td (As implemented, however, QE also took on the features of a fiscal, or cr\ edit market, )Tj -3 -2.3 Td (intervention, especially when the Fed expanded its purchases to include \ mortgage)Tj 32.685 0 Td (-)Tj (backed )Tj -32.685 -2.3 Td (securities. At that point, the Fe)Tj (d stopped acting like a central bank and started behaving more )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (like a private financial institution, issuing its own )Tj 20.025 0 Td (short)Tj (-)Tj (term liabilities )Tj (to make long)Tj (-)Tj (term loans, )Tj -20.025 -2.3 Td (especially in the housing markets. And, likewise, the Fed\222s decision\ , in September 2011, )Tj 35.965 0 Td (to )Tj -35.965 -2.3 Td (\223twist\224 the yield curve by selling short)Tj (-)Tj (term assets and buying long)Tj (-)Tj (term bonds)Tj ( )Tj (with no resulting )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (change in base money)Tj (, accomplished nothing more than the US Treasury could have done on its \ )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (own, simply by modifying the composition of its outstanding deb)Tj (t. At the time, Allan observed:)Tj ( )Tj 3 -2.3 Td (Purchasing more than $1 trillion of long)Tj (-)Tj (term mortgages is credit allocation. \205 )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (Selling Treasury securities to finance mortgage of other purchases is a \ fiscal )Tj 0 -1.16 Td (operation. The monetary base doesn\222t change, and the purchase )Tj 25.879 0 Td (reduces the )Tj -25.879 -1.14 Td (interest payment made to the Treasury. Selling two)Tj 20.689 0 Td (-)Tj (year Treasuries to finance )Tj -20.689 -1.16 Td (purchases of longer)Tj (-)Tj (term bonds also doesn\222t change reserves or money. It is debt )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (management and should be left to the Treasury. \(Meltzer 2012, p.255\))Tj 28.325 0 Td ( )Tj -28.325 -1.16 Td ( )Tj -3 -1.14 Td ( )Tj 3 0 Td (Meanwhile, )Tj (the beneficia)Tj (l pure monetary affects that)Tj ( )Tj (its QE programs might have had )Tj -3 -2.3 Td (were curtailed, to a large extent, by the Fed\222s 2008 decision to begi\ n paying interest on bank )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (reserves at rates at )Tj (\226)Tj ( )Tj (or even above )Tj (\226)Tj ( )Tj (those offered by securities with similar risk and)Tj 33.988 0 Td ( )Tj (maturity )Tj -33.988 -2.3 Td (characteristics. As the analysis in Ireland \(2014\) makes clear, payin\ g interest on reserves at any )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (positive rate shifts the curve linking banks\222 demand for reserves to \ the federal funds rate)Tj 35.377 0 Td ( )Tj (outward)Tj ( )Tj -35.377 -2.3 Td (to the right. In theory, it acts as a shock t)Tj (o money demand, sending deflationary impulses )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (through the economy. In the Brunner)Tj (-)Tj (Meltzer model, as noted above)Tj ( )Tj (and shown in figure 2)Tj (, this )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (holds true even if the central bank fully accommodates the increase in r\ eserves demand with a )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (corresponding increas)Tj (e in supply. In retrospect, the Fed\222s interest)Tj (-)Tj (on)Tj (-)Tj (reserves policy was a )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (mistake, which reinforced the deflationary pressures set off by flight)Tj 27.38 0 Td (-)Tj (to)Tj (-)Tj (quality dynamics during )Tj -27.38 -2.3 Td (and after the financial crisis, which similarly increased )Tj 22.13 0 Td (both banks\222 and the public\222)Tj (s)Tj ( )Tj (demand for )Tj -22.13 -2.3 Td (safe and highl)Tj (y liquid monetary assets)Tj (. As Allan explains:)Tj ( )Tj ET endstream endobj 19 0 obj <>/ExtGState<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Rotate 0/Type/Page>> endobj 20 0 obj <>stream BT /CS0 cs 0 0 0 scn /GS0 gs /C2_0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 72 57.12 Tm <0001>Tj ET q 300 54.72 12 13.92 re W n BT /TT0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 300 57.6 Tm (10)Tj ( )Tj ET Q BT /TT0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 108 708.96 Tm (By paying interest)Tj ( )Tj (on excess reserves, policy encouraged the reserve )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (accumulation. \205 The Federal Reserve made a traditional error, an err\ or repeated )Tj 0 -1.16 Td (many times. They equated monetar)Tj 14.329 0 Td (y expansion to the first)Tj (-)Tj (round effects on )Tj -14.329 -1.14 Td (interest rates, exchange rates, and asset prices. They ignored any subs\ equent )Tj 0 -1.16 Td (effects from growth of money and credit. A better policy would have exp\ anded )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (money and credit growth more and excess reserves less. T)Tj (hat would have )Tj 0 -1.16 Td (provided more stimulus and avoided the problem posed by more than $2 tri\ llion )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (of excess res)Tj (e)Tj (rves.)Tj ( )Tj (\(Meltzer, 2014b, p.148\))Tj ( )Tj 0 -1.16 Td ( )Tj -3 -1.14 Td ( )Tj 3 0 Td (In hindsight, one must acknowledge that few if anyone anticipated the de\ pth and duration )Tj -3 -2.3 Td (of the Great Recession of )Tj (2)Tj (007)Tj (-)Tj (09, or the prolonged period)Tj ( )Tj (of time during which Fed interest )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (rate policy would be constrained by the zero lower bound. Many features\ of QE, as well as other )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (aspects of the Fed\222s policy response, had to be improvised under stre\ ss, within an environmen)Tj 37.603 0 Td (t )Tj -37.603 -2.3 Td (marked by both political and economic turmoil. Looking forward, however\ , Federal Reserve )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (officials now have the chance to )Tj (design)Tj (, more )Tj (deliberately, a )Tj (robust set of strategies that )Tj (will help )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (the central bank achieve its monetary policy goals )Tj 20.271 0 Td (more )Tj (effect)Tj (ively, in )Tj (both )Tj (good)Tj ( )Tj (times and bad.)Tj ( )Tj -20.271 -2.3 Td (In general, the Brunner)Tj (-)Tj (Meltzer model points to a need for the Fed to delineate more clearly the\ )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (boundaries between monetary and credit policies, along the lines suggest\ ed by Goodfriend )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (\(2014\), working with Congress to c)Tj (larify what the Fed can and cannot do to stabilize the )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (economy )Tj (and the financial system during the )Tj 18.189 0 Td (economic crisis. In particular, the Fed should )Tj -18.189 -2.3 Td (return to a \223Treasuries only\224 policy, according to which it eschew\ s direct interventions allocating )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (credit to)Tj ( )Tj (any specific sector of the economy and focuses, instead, on its traditio\ nal monetary )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (policy role of using open market operations to maintain a credible regim\ e of stable prices in the )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (long run.)Tj ( )Tj 0 -2.3 Td ( )Tj 3 0 Td (The Brunner)Tj (-)Tj (Meltzer model also points to the possibility that)Tj ( )Tj (the Fed could minimize )Tj -3 -2.3 Td (future disruptions to its policy procedures caused by the zero lower bou\ nd through institutional )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (arrangements that would allow it use its control over the monetary base \ to exert greater influence )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (on the growth rate of broader moneta)Tj (ry aggregates. Reconsidering or modifying its interest on )Tj ET endstream endobj 21 0 obj <>/ExtGState<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Rotate 0/Type/Page>> endobj 22 0 obj <>stream BT /CS0 cs 0 0 0 scn /GS0 gs /C2_0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 72 57.12 Tm <0001>Tj ET q 300 54.72 12 13.92 re W n BT /TT0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 300 57.6 Tm (11)Tj ( )Tj ET Q BT /TT0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 72 708.96 Tm (reserves policies and the associated reverse repurchase agreement progra\ ms it established for )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (nonbank financial intermediaries could)Tj 15.633 0 Td ( )Tj (help in this regard. )Tj (Along the same lines it should)Tj ( )Tj (be )Tj -15.633 -2.3 Td (noted th)Tj (at the Federal Reserve)Tj ( )Tj (has, for many decades, largely )Tj (ignored information about the )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (effects of its policies conveyed by the monetary aggregates. In Allan\222\ s view, \223monetary policy )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (wit)Tj 1.278 0 Td (hout money is a serious mistake)Tj (\224)Tj ( )Tj (\(Meltzer 2014a, p.525\).)Tj ( )Tj (But this is a m)Tj (istake that might )Tj -1.278 -2.3 Td (easily be corrected if, as suggested by Belongia and Ireland \(2018\), t\ he Fed adopted a \223)Tj 34.96 0 Td (two)Tj (-)Tj -34.96 -2.3 Td (pillar\224 strategy like )Tj (the European Central Bank\222s. During normal times the growth rates of\ broad )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (monetary aggregates could serve as a \223cross chec)Tj (k\224 against the more conventional )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (macroeconomic analyses conducted at the Federal Reserve Board and in the\ research )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (departments at the Federal Reserve Banks, to ensure that the Fed\222s in\ terest rate policies remain )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (consistent with its commitment to long)Tj (-)Tj (run p)Tj (rice stability. But then, in times of crisis when )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (interest rate policy may again be constrained by the zero lower bound, m\ oney growth could take )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (on a bigger role, as a focal point for open market purchases intended to\ achieve the same, )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (unchanging goals.)Tj ( )Tj 0 -2.3 Td ( )Tj /TT1 1 Tf 0 -2.3 Td (The Enduring Case for Monetary Policy Rules)Tj /TT0 1 Tf ( )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (Finally, any )Tj (discussion of Al)Tj (lan Meltzer\222s model of the transmission mechanism would be )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (in)Tj (complete without mention of the need for the Fed to adopt and announce a\ specific, monetary )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (policy rule to guide its meeti)Tj (ng)Tj (-)Tj (by)Tj (-)Tj (meeting decisions. Allan\222s arguments in support of rules )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (leaned heavily on his view that the rigidities that allow monetary polic\ y to have real effects in )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (the short)Tj (-)Tj (run reflect private agents\222 imperfect information about the economy. \ But they also )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (drew on the related observation, made more forcefully in Meltzer \(1987\)\ , that policymakers, too, )Tj ET endstream endobj 23 0 obj <>/ExtGState<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Rotate 0/Type/Page>> endobj 24 0 obj <>stream BT /CS0 cs 0 0 0 scn /GS0 gs /C2_0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 72 57.12 Tm <0001>Tj ET q 300 54.72 12 13.92 re W n BT /TT0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 300 57.6 Tm (12)Tj ( )Tj ET Q BT /TT0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 72 708.96 Tm (lack the full and timely knowledge that they would need to successfully \ fine tune the economy )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (through purely discretionary policy actions. )Tj 17.968 0 Td (In more detail)Tj (, All)Tj (an )Tj (argued)Tj ( )Tj (that)Tj (:)Tj ( )Tj -14.968 -2.3 Td (Support for rules )Tj (is related to five monetarist proposi)Tj (tions: 1\) neither the central )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (bank nor private forecasters can predict output, employment, inflation o\ r other )Tj 0 -1.16 Td (variables with sufficient accuracy to damp flu)Tj 18.326 0 Td (ctuations on average; 2\) lags)Tj 11.44 0 Td ( )Tj (are)Tj ( )Tj (not )Tj -29.767 -1.14 Td (constant; neither government nor private forecasters can distinguish bet\ ween )Tj 0 -1.16 Td (permanent and transitory disturbances to levels and growth rates until s\ ometime )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (after they occur; 3\) the response of particular relative prices to mone\ tary and other )Tj 0 -1.16 Td (impu)Tj (lses in any cycle may differ from previous cycles depending on initial )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (conditions, the nature of the shocks and the policy rule that is followe\ d; 4\) the )Tj 0 -1.16 Td (private sector damps fluctuations and returns to stability if undisturbe\ d by )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (unanticipated policy impul)Tj (ses; and 5\) rules that are easily monitored reduce costs )Tj 0 -1.16 Td (of )Tj (information)Tj (. \(Meltzer 1995, p.69\))Tj ( )Tj 0 -1.14 Td ( )Tj -3 -1.16 Td ( )Tj 3 0 Td (Meltzer \(1987)Tj (\) describes )Tj (a rule that, unlike Milton Friedman\222s)Tj 25.021 0 Td ( )Tj (\(1960\))Tj ( )Tj (prescription for )Tj -28.021 -2.3 Td (constant money growth and more akin to the Taylor \(1993\) rule for sett\ in)Tj 29.326 0 Td (g the federal funds rate, )Tj -29.326 -2.3 Td (adjusts the growth rate of the monetary base in response to changes in o\ utput growth and )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (monetary velocity. Like both Friedman and Taylor, however, Allan emphas\ ized the benefits that )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (would accrue if the Fed conducted policy with )Tj 18.828 0 Td (reference to any sensible rule that would make its )Tj -18.828 -2.3 Td (actions more predictable and easier for the public to understand and wou\ ld allow policymakers to )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (focus their attention on intermediate)Tj (-)Tj (term developments instead of short)Tj (-)Tj (term noise. With )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (specific referenc)Tj (e to the Taylor rule, for example, Allan noted that)Tj 26.543 0 Td ( )Tj -23.543 -2.3 Td (The years when Volcker was chairman are one of the few periods in which \ the )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (Federal Reserve was less influenced by short)Tj (-)Tj (term events. Volcker followed the )Tj 0 -1.16 Td (successful disinflation by relying for guidance )Tj 18.773 0 Td (on a Taylor rule after 1985. His )Tj -18.773 -1.14 Td (successor, Alan Greenspan, continued that policy until 2003. This produ\ ced the )Tj 0 -1.16 Td (longest period in Fed history of price stability with relatively stable \ growth, and )Tj 0 -1.14 Td (short, mild recessions. The period is known as the \223Great)Tj ( )Tj (Moderation.\224 I believe )Tj 0 -1.16 Td (that the reduction in fluctuations is mainly the result of a rule)Tj 24.466 0 Td (-)Tj (based policy that )Tj -24.466 -1.14 Td (focused more attention in the medium)Tj (-)Tj (term than on current data. \(Meltzer 2014a, )Tj 0 -1.16 Td (p.535\))Tj ( )Tj 0 -1.14 Td ( )Tj 0 -1.16 Td (\223History has an important message for theory and policy,\224 )Tj 23.604 0 Td (he went on to say )Tj -26.604 -2.3 Td (Meltzer 2014a, p.535\). The message is that nothing prevents the Fed fr\ om recreating the )Tj ET endstream endobj 25 0 obj <>/ExtGState<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Rotate 0/Type/Page>> endobj 26 0 obj <>stream BT /CS0 cs 0 0 0 scn /GS0 gs /C2_0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 72 57.12 Tm <0001>Tj ET q 300 54.72 12 13.92 re W n BT /TT0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 300 57.6 Tm (13)Tj ( )Tj ET Q BT /TT0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 72 708.96 Tm (conditions for stable inflation and robust economic growth, today and in\ the future. The )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (first and most important step in doing so is for the centra)Tj (l bank to announce and )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (consistently follow a specific monetary policy rule.)Tj 20.522 0 Td ( )Tj -20.522 -2.3 Td ( )Tj /TT1 1 Tf 0 -2.3 Td (References)Tj ( )Tj /TT0 1 Tf 0 -2.3 Td (Belongia, Michael T. and Peter N. 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Ed. )Tj /TT1 1 Tf 31.298 0 Td (The Monetary )Tj -28.298 -2.3 Td (Transmission Process: Recen)Tj (t Developments and Lessons for Europe)Tj /TT0 1 Tf (. New York:)Tj ( )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (Palgrave Publishers, 2001, pp.)Tj (112)Tj (-)Tj (130.)Tj ( )Tj -3 -2.3 Td (Meltzer, Allan H. \223Federal Reserve Policy in the Great Recession.\224\ )Tj /TT1 1 Tf 27.241 0 Td (Cato Journal)Tj /TT0 1 Tf ( )Tj (32 )Tj -24.241 -2.3 Td (\(Spring/Su)Tj (m)Tj (mer 2012\): 255)Tj (-)Tj (263.)Tj ( )Tj -3 -2.3 Td (Meltzer, Allan H. \223Current Lessons from the Past: How the Fed Repeats\ Its History.\224 )Tj /TT1 1 Tf 34.41 0 Td (Cato )Tj -31.41 -2.3 Td (Journal)Tj /TT0 1 Tf ( )Tj (34 \(Fall 2014a\): 519)Tj (-)Tj (539.)Tj ( )Tj -3 -2.3 Td (Meltzer, Allan H. \223A Slow Recovery with Low Inflation.\224 In Martin \ Neil Baily and John B. )Tj 3 -2.3 Td (Taylor, Eds. )Tj /TT1 1 Tf (Across the Great Divide: New Pe)Tj (rspectives on the Financial Crisis.)Tj /TT0 1 Tf ( )Tj 0 -2.3 Td (Stanford: Hoove)Tj (r Institution Press, 2014b, pp.)Tj (145)Tj (-)Tj (161.)Tj ( )Tj -3 -2.3 Td (Meltzer, Allan H. \223Karl Brunner, Scholar: An Appreciation.\224 Econom\ ics Working Paper 15116. )Tj 10.8 0 0 10.8 108 212.16 Tm (S)Tj 0.566 0 Td (t)Tj 0.006 Tc -0.006 Tw 0.283 0 Td [(a)-2.1 (n)-3.1 (fo)-3.1 (rd)]TJ 0 Tc 0 Tw 12 0 0 12 145.8823 212.16 Tm (: Hoover Institution, October 2015.)Tj ( )Tj -6.157 -2.3 Td (Poole, William. \223Optimal Choic)Tj (e of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro )Tj 3 -2.3 Td (Model.\224 )Tj /TT1 1 Tf (Quarterly Journal of Economics)Tj /TT0 1 Tf ( )Tj (84 \(May 1970\): 197)Tj (-)Tj (216.)Tj ( )Tj -3 -2.3 Td (Taylor, John B. \223Discretion versus Policy Rules in Practice.\224 )Tj /TT1 1 Tf 24.662 0 Td (Carnegie)Tj (-)Tj (Rochester Conference )Tj -21.662 -2.3 Td (Series on Public Policy)Tj /TT0 1 Tf ( )Tj (39 \(December 19)Tj (93\): 195)Tj (-)Tj (214.)Tj ( )Tj ET endstream endobj 31 0 obj <>/ExtGState<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageC]/XObject<>>>/Rotate 0/Type/Page>> endobj 32 0 obj <>stream BT /CS0 cs 0 0 0 scn /GS0 gs /C2_0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 72 57.12 Tm <0001>Tj ET q 300 54.72 12 13.92 re W n BT /TT0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 300 57.6 Tm (16)Tj ( )Tj ET Q q 72 468 467.52 252 re W n BT /TT0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 470.6298 468 Tm ( )Tj ET Q q 72 454.32 467.52 13.68 re W n BT /TT0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 305.6298 456.96 Tm ( )Tj ET Q q 72 202.32 467.52 252 re W n BT /TT0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 470.6298 202.32 Tm ( )Tj ET Q BT /TT0 1 Tf 12 0 0 12 72 191.28 Tm ( )Tj 0 -1.16 Td (Figure )Tj (1. 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Ireland b5d4a17d682ab5daa9035370d8512011a773b896 607251 Adobe Mac PDF Plug-in Word 2017-11-27T15:39:53.000-05:00 2017-11-27T15:39:53.000-05:00 2017-11-27T15:37:25.000-05:00 application/pdf 2017-11-30T10:45:45.915-05:00 Peter N. Ireland Allan Meltzer's Model of the Tranmission Mechanism uuid:a49906e5-5fb1-0743-a6a8-54fbe7fa157f uuid:f16971aa-2685-ed46-8fb6-4ddc911e6af8 endstream endobj 62 0 obj <> endobj xref 0 63 0000000000 65535 f 0000084783 00000 n 0000085037 00000 n 0000087851 00000 n 0000088105 00000 n 0000091658 00000 n 0000091901 00000 n 0000095242 00000 n 0000095485 00000 n 0000098415 00000 n 0000098670 00000 n 0000101794 00000 n 0000102039 00000 n 0000105339 00000 n 0000105606 00000 n 0000108841 00000 n 0000109097 00000 n 0000112394 00000 n 0000112639 00000 n 0000116206 00000 n 0000116451 00000 n 0000119772 00000 n 0000120028 00000 n 0000122735 00000 n 0000122980 00000 n 0000126790 00000 n 0000127057 00000 n 0000129672 00000 n 0000129928 00000 n 0000132417 00000 n 0000132673 00000 n 0000135732 00000 n 0000136018 00000 n 0000137256 00000 n 0000141195 00000 n 0000204529 00000 n 0000208468 00000 n 0000281404 00000 n 0000281690 00000 n 0000282816 00000 n 0000286755 00000 n 0000352479 00000 n 0000356418 00000 n 0000438024 00000 n 0000438310 00000 n 0000439421 00000 n 0000443360 00000 n 0000508951 00000 n 0000512890 00000 n 0000596268 00000 n 0000596564 00000 n 0000596633 00000 n 0000596762 00000 n 0000596841 00000 n 0000596999 00000 n 0000597604 00000 n 0000597847 00000 n 0000597872 00000 n 0000597940 00000 n 0000598031 00000 n 0000598125 00000 n 0000598248 00000 n 0000602288 00000 n trailer <]>> startxref 116 %%EOF