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It was a multidisciplinary affair, featuring not only marketing experts but also specialists in other fields such as behavioral psychology, economics, cognitive sciences, and the law. 鈥淚t鈥檚 very broad,鈥� said Coughlin Sesquicentennial Assistant Professor of Marketing听Hristina Nikolova, referring to the research specialty of judgment and decision making, known in the trade as JDM. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 the beauty of it.鈥�

Nikolova teamed up with Carroll School Assistant Professor of Marketing听Nailya Ordabayeva听to organize the event. Ordabayeva said the conference grew out of smaller, informal gatherings of specialists at Boston-area institutions such as Boston University and Northeastern. 鈥淭he field is definitely growing,鈥� she said.

The schedule of talks for the day was as crowded as the tiered lecture room on the second floor of Fulton. No fewer than 29 researchers gave presentations with titles such as 鈥淓levating Brands: How Low Control Perpetuates Preferences for Brand Leaders鈥� (, the Carroll School), 鈥淐olor Saturation Increases Perceived Product Size鈥� (Henrik Hagtvedt, also of the Carroll School), 鈥淚t Doesn鈥檛 Hurt to Ask: Question-Asking Encourages Self-Disclosure and Increases Liking鈥� (Allison Wood Brooks, Harvard Business School), and 鈥淗umblebragging and Backhanded Compliments: Two Distinctly Ineffective Self-Presentation Strategies鈥� (Ovul Sezer, Harvard University).

Besides spearheading the conference, Ordabayeva and Nikolova stepped up to the lectern, at different times, to report on their own JDM findings.

Harder Than It Looks

Ordabayeva led off the day with a presentation titled 鈥淭he Visual Acuity of Less: Why People Underestimate Increases but Not Decreases in Quantity.鈥� She began by displaying two images of cinema-style popcorn boxes. The first was a black-and-white shot from the 1950s, showing a petite young woman clutching a popcorn box with one hand at a refreshments counter. The second was a contemporary image in full color of a popcorn bucket that would likely require two hands even if toted by a seven-footer playing for the Boston Celtics. Captions indicated that a typical popcorn serving at the movies has ballooned from 3 cups and 174 calories during the 鈥�50s to 21 cups and 1,700 calories today (without added butter).

Why have popcorn boxes and other food servings swollen so?

There are various reasons, and at the conference Ordabayeva alluded to economies of scale as one of them. It is natural to suppose that another factor is the susceptibility of humans to one of the seven deadly sins鈥攇luttony. But the marketing professor has an altogether different idea that she has tested in clinical studies. 鈥淭he problem is that visual impressions are really biased,鈥� she told her fellow researchers. Simply put, people are bad at calculating the size of large, three-dimensional objects.

In fact, as Ordabayeva explained, consumers tend to underestimate increases in product size, and there have been plenty of those increases with the supersizing of fast-food servings. She made clear that the consequences of this miscalculation are serious: 鈥淎s a result, consumers overeat when served supersized food or drinks.鈥� At the same time, the professor said people are likely to be far more accurate when estimating听decreases听in product size. That happens, for example, when restaurants shrink portions for calorie-conscious patrons.

Why are the guesstimates of supersizes so far off? One big reason is that when surmising those portions, people normally don鈥檛 have 鈥渁n upper bound,鈥� Ordabayeva said. In other words, there鈥檚 no clear limit to the potential size of a food serving, so they don鈥檛 have a reference point for calculating the bigger portion. That鈥檚 not the case with smaller sizes, she noted. People do have a reference point, a lower bound, for estimating those: zero.

In her brief presentation, Ordabayeva did not have much time to discuss the implications of her research findings. But later in an interview she pointed to some ways of making it easier for consumers to calculate the increases in size.

One approach is to give people the upper bound by 鈥渄rawing attention to the capacity limit,鈥� she suggests. An example would be to provide a cup for self-serving at a Slurpee counter while also telling the customer how much the cup can hold. That 鈥渕akes people aware of the limits, more mindful of the servings,鈥� Ordabayeva explains. Another 鈥渟imple trick,鈥� she says, is to increase the size of a package by only one dimension鈥攆or instance, with a tube-shaped box of candy on the drugstore shelf. That鈥檚 much easier for the human mind to compute than an upsizing that involves a three-dimensional change in space, according to her findings. 鈥淚t鈥檚 really a computational problem,鈥� she says.

Extreme Decision-Making

After a lunch for conference participants, Nikolova delivered her presentation titled 鈥淢en and the Middle: Gender Differences in Dyadic Compromise Effects.鈥� Her clinical studies have built on research into the so-called 鈥渃ompromise effect,鈥� in which consumers tend to choose the middle option in a set of three product choices. For example, they are (in theory) more likely to pick, say, a Honda Accord rather than the lower-cost Civic or the higher-cost Acura. Retailers often try to capitalize on this effect by adding a third, higher-priced version of a product.

Nikolova has found that men and women鈥攁cting individually or together鈥攎ake choices along these lines. They go for moderation rather than low or high extremes. Two women cooperating on a purchase do the same. But the pattern differs when two men decide together, according to her research.

After explaining some of this background, Nikolova drew laughs from the audience by displaying a slide that summarized recent studies of 鈥淢ale Dyads鈥� by psychologists Jennifer K. Bosson and Joseph A. Vandello. Among the conclusions of this research, as read aloud by Nikolova:

• 鈥淢anhood is elusive and tenuous; need to demonstrate it repeatedly in actions.鈥�
• 鈥淢anhood is threatened in the presence of another man.鈥�
• 鈥淕ender dichotomization establishes manhood.鈥�

Nikolova鈥檚 decision-making research bears out these general male traits. When purchasing an item together, two men will characteristically veer toward the extreme option鈥攆or example, choosing the more expensive restaurant or the riskier stock that offers a higher potential level of return.

The findings matter in part because 鈥渢here are a lot of decisions that men make together,鈥� she said during her presentation, mentioning the example of a father and son choosing the kid鈥檚 first car. Nikolova added in an interview that it鈥檚 good for both men and women to be aware of these tendencies and biases but that the product choices made typically by two men aren鈥檛 necessarily bad. 鈥淪ometimes the best option is not the middle option,鈥� she said. Sometimes the riskier stock might be the better choice.

Aside from the two conference organizers, the other Boston College faculty members presenting at Boston Judgment and Decision Making Day were Bleier and Hagtvedt.

Bleier summarized his research conducted with collaborators Joshua Beck of the University of Oregon and Ryan Rahinel of the University of Cincinnati. Their studies have focused on the brand preferences of people who have feelings of 鈥渓ow control鈥� due to recent occurrences ranging from traffic delays to abusive relationships and frustrations at work. The general finding is that the sense of lost control 鈥渋nfluences preference for brand leaders,鈥� said Bleier, referring to how these people gravitated toward names such as Nike, Walmart, and Samsung. His explanation: 鈥淧eople in low-control conditions imbue brand leaders with the power to impose order.鈥�

The most recent study by the team looked specifically at those who dwell in high-crime neighborhoods, and likewise, these people were more likely than others to prefer brand leaders. They saw these brands as 鈥渁ctive agents, able to restore control鈥� over their surroundings, Bleier concluded.

Color My Judgment

Late in the day, Hagtvedt presented research gathered by him and Carroll School Chairperson and Associate Professor of Marketing听S. Adam Brasel. 鈥淐olor is ubiquitous,鈥� Hagtvedt observed, proceeding to display colorful images of iPhones, beach chairs, signs (including 鈥淜eep Calm and Test the Hypothesis鈥�), and other items. One of the specific findings is that people tend to 鈥渋dentify objects highly saturated in color as larger鈥� than equally large items of the same hue but less dense in their colors. He clicked on a slide showing two red gym bags of identical size鈥攐ne more intensely red than the other. That one was seen by study participants as larger than the bag with less saturated color.

Along with the four Boston College marketing professors, Haewon Yoon, a Carroll School postdoctoral fellow, delivered remarks titled 鈥淒ynamic Inconsistency and Discount Rate in Discounting Models,鈥� which took a critical look at established research models that examine so-called 鈥渢emporal discounting鈥� (why some people but not others would prefer, say, a $10 reward or payment today over $15 a month from now). In summarizing his findings, Yoon quoted the late legendary statistician George Box as saying, 鈥淎ll models are wrong, but some are useful鈥濃�攚hich drew chuckles across the room.

The end-of-the-day keynoter was Dilip Soman, marketing professor and Corus Chair in Communication Strategy at the University of Toronto鈥檚 Rotman School of Management. He applied decision-making theories to public policy matters such as organ donation and compliance with tax laws. It turns out that people are far more likely to sign up as organ donors when they鈥檙e asked not whether they鈥檇 like to make a donation but what kind of donation they鈥檇 like to make鈥攆or example, 鈥渢ransplant only鈥� or 鈥渙rgan and tissue research.鈥� He displayed a Canadian form distributed in Ontario that takes this approach, with no box for opting out of organ-donor registration. People do have to sign the form and can withdraw their consent at any time.

Judging the conference to be a success, Ordabayeva and Nikolova said a second annual Boston Judgment and Decision Making Day will be held next spring under the auspices of the Carroll School or another university in the area.

Photo by Stefanie Tracey

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